By Jim Garamone
American Forces Press Service
WASHINGTON, Feb. 11, 2013 – The Afghan presidential elections now
set for April 2014 are looming ever larger as a milestone for measuring
progress in the country, NATO officials in Afghanistan said yesterday.
How the Afghan forces protect voting and how the Afghan people
accept the results will be key to the long-term success of the country,
said a senior International Security Assistance Force official speaking
on background.
Things are looking up in Afghanistan, the official
said, but there are many hurdles to overcome. Only 22 months remain in
the ISAF mandate. By spring, Afghan forces will be leading security
operations throughout the country. By the end of 2014, Afghan forces
will shoulder the security burden themselves as the NATO mission ends.
The Taliban are also looking forward, the official said. “There will be
a ’13 fighting season,” he said. The Taliban will be up against 352,000
members of the Afghan security forces. That force has grown in
capability as it has grown in size, the official said.
There will
be negotiations and talks between the Taliban and the international
community. “From my vantage point I think it’s a delaying tactic,” he
said. “They’ve gone through 12 years of war and they are 22 months away
from a very small presence.”
He said Afghan Taliban leaders in
Quetta, Pakistan, are looking at three key things over the next two
years. First, how good are the Afghan security forces? Second, what will
be the U.S. and NATO investment in the country after 2015? And the
third are the April 5, 2014, elections.
“[The elections] are
probably the most critical thing that will happen in the next 22
months,” he said. Afghans will go to the polls to elect a new president
and provincial councils. The last election, in 2009, was marred by
allegations of vote fraud. It is supremely important that these new
elections go well and that Afghans accept the outcome, the official
said.
The official spoke about the changes in Afghanistan since
the surge of U.S. and NATO forces ended. The surge did what it was
supposed to do, he said, buy time for Afghans to field their forces. Now
Afghan soldiers and police are in the lead in security through most of
the country and have grown in size and capabilities.
This is a
long way from January 2009, the official noted, when the entire
Afghanistan campaign looked like a failure. “In January 2009, Kandahar
was at risk [and] the central Helmand Valley was at risk,” he said.
“There were a number of attacks into Kabul.”
Then-ISAF commander
Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal’s assessment was that the actual campaign
was at risk and asked for additional troops. “Take where we were in 2009
and jump to the end of the surge … in September 2012,” the official
said. “As I see the battlespace, I can honestly say that you have a less
capable, less popular and less of an existential threat when you look
at the insurgency. But you still have a threat.”
And the threat will remain in January 2015, but the Afghans should be able to manage it.
Like Afghanistan itself, statistics that look at violence in the
country are complex. “When people look at statistics, they say that you
have virtually inconsequential changes from ’11 to ’12,” he said. “If
you just look at those numbers without the context there is so much you
miss.”
Last year was about holding the gains that the surge made
possible, he said. The Afghans moved to the lead as the United States
pulled 23,000 personnel out of the country in September 2012.
Afghan
forces held the ground and actually expanded their control in the area
west of Kandahar and in the Helmand River Valley, the official said.
Another piece of the statistics equation is where the violence was
happening. “What we were able to do in 2012 was slowly start separating
the insurgency from the major population centers,” he said.
The
violence in 2012 happened increasingly in sparsely settled rural areas,
the official said, noting that in surveys, Afghans report they feel
safer and believe the Taliban is not coming back.
Violence is
still a problem and the official said 17 districts out of the 402 in the
nation are where 50 percent of the violence occurs. Put another way, 80
percent of the attacks occur where 20 percent of the population live.
The worst districts are in northern Helmand.
The Haqqani network
specializes in high-profile attacks, the official said. “If there is an
attack in Kabul it gets the press ... It gives the impression that Kabul
is under siege, which is not the case.”
Afghan forces have
responded quickly and professionally to attacks in the capital, another
sign of their continued maturation, he said, but high-profile attacks
are going to happen, and they are going to get through.
There
were 18 high-profile attacks in Kabul in 2011 and nine in 2012. While
there were just nine attacks, the official said, there were “hundreds of
threats.” And while Afghan capabilities are improving, he added, “even
the best goalie in professional soccer is going to get scored on.”
Afghan forces are not going to let the Taliban have the rural areas,
the official said. The Afghan Local Police -- now with some 20,000
members -- are becoming a security net for the people. “The ALP becomes a
hold force for you,” the official said. “You have police who live and
work in the rural areas.”
The official sees three tiers to the
threat to Afghanistan. The first tier is tactical -- the 20,000 to
30,000 mostly local insurgents in the country.
The next level is
the operational cadre -- the
leadership, the shadow government and the
Taliban in Pakistan, he said. These men can recruit, train and supply
fighters. The leaders in Pakistan are problematic for ISAF, the official
said. “We’ve heard that the Pakistanis are changing their strategic
calculus, but there is ‘what you say’ and ‘what you do,’” he said. “I’m
waiting for the ‘what you do’ to see how that works.”
The third
threat is not the insurgency, the official said, but the degree of
corruption and criminality that exists within the government.
“If
you can get some rule of law and move forward, then you can pull the
carpet out from under the insurgency,” he said. Putting in place a legal
system and service infrastructure will be a key outgrowth of the April
2014 elections, the official noted.
The world will be watching
those elections as well. After 2015, there are 28 NATO nations and eight
partner nations that have already said they will invest in Afghanistan.
“And all will be watching the elections,” the official said.