NATO Summit to Focus on Afghanistan, Missile Defense

By Donna Miles

American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, May 14, 2012 – Afghanistan will top the agenda items at the upcoming NATO Summit in Chicago as coalition members consider an agreement on a long-term strategic partnership that promotes security and stability there, NATO’s supreme allied commander for Europe reported.

“What I am hoping to see is a commitment to resourcing the Afghan national security forces post-2014,” Navy Adm. James G. Stavridis said of the May 20-21 summit, which will include the 28 NATO heads of state and government representatives from many of the 50 nations that make up the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan.

“I am fairly confident we will see that, and I think that will be the key to long-term success,” Stavridis said during an interview with the Pentagon Channel and American Forces Press Service.

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen considers a long-term strategic partnership with Afghanistan to be a high-level goal, Stavridis told Congress in March.

“Everything I can see around the circuit on the NATO side indicates a strong willingness to go forward,” he told the Senate Armed Services Committee. “And I believe we will have an enduring partnership between NATO and the republic of Afghanistan.”

Missile defense will be another major summit issue, the admiral said, with the announcement that the new missile defense system has reached interim operational capability. This interim system, the first phase of the new U.S.-based European Phased Adaptive Approach Missile Defense System, will be integrated with the NATO command-and-control system to begin standing up the NATO missile defense system, he said.

Looking to the future, Stavridis said he anticipates more discussion of “smart defense” -- essentially pooling capabilities in light of shrinking defense budgets confronting all the NATO members.

“As we face these financial pressures today, clearly we need to, in any alliance, come together in efficient ways so we can … generate capability for reasonable amounts of money,” he said.

Stavridis, who also commands U.S. European Command, noted missile defense as an example of financial burden-sharing that provides collective defense. Another is the Baltic air policing mission, in which NATO member nations rotate their fighter jets to defend the airspace over Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia.

Summit participants also will discuss progress on a new alliance ground surveillance system that will give commanders a comprehensive picture of the situation on the ground. NATO’s operation to protect civilians in Libya drove home the importance of such a system, Stavridis said. As a result, 13 allies plan to procure a variant of the Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicle and the associated command-and-control base stations and to operate them on behalf of all NATO members, he reported.

Stavridis said he hopes the members will discuss the pooling of resources in other areas such as special operations and cyber in which pooled arrangements would benefit the alliance.

While not necessarily a top agenda item, the apparent inability of some NATO partners to spend 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense as agreed is likely to come up during the summit. Only six members, including the United States, Great Britain and France, currently meet that goal.

Economic and fiscal pressures have caused many European states to reduce their budgets, and Stavridis expressed concern that the situation could adversely impact military readiness.

“We, the United States and its partners who are spending that amount of money, … need to keep pressure on those who are not, so they meet those minimum levels of spending,” he said.

Officials Discuss Troop Numbers, Partnership With Afghanistan

By Jim Garamone

American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, March 22, 2012 – Troop numbers -- both Afghan and coalition -- were among the questions posed to senior officials during testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee today.

Marine Corps Gen. John R. Allen, the commander of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force, and James N. Miller, acting undersecretary of defense for policy, told senators that training Afghan soldiers and police is going well, but it will require patience to ensure the job is done correctly.

The Afghan national security forces will surge to 352,000 later this year. But the Afghan government cannot afford to keep that many people in the security forces long-term, so that number will come down in the future, Allen said.

One study, the general said, points to a long-term force in the vicinity of 230,000.

“But there are a number of different options,” he added, “and we’re continuing to evaluate what those options might be, all the way from the current force, … which will continue to exist for several years once we have fielded it, down to a force that was smaller than [230,000], which probably doesn’t have the right … combination of capabilities.”

Any decision on the size of the force will be made in the future by Afghan leaders working with coalition personnel, Allen said. What’s more, any reduction must be made only after a careful study of conditions on the ground. “That security environment will be ultimately the key indicator of whether that drawdown should ultimately occur, so it’ll be conditions-based,” the general said.

Allen submits the metrics involved with these studies every six months. The next set of statistics will include an evaluation of scenarios after December 2014.

The United States has 89,000 troops in Afghanistan today. That number will go down by 23,000 by the end of the summer fighting season. Allen told the Senate panel that once that is done he will examine the size of the force and the likely threat it will face in 2013. “My opinion is that we will need significant combat power in 2013,” he said.

Allen said 68,000 U.S. troops “is a good going-in number,” but he told the senators he owes the president further analysis on that issue.

Miller stressed the need for a strategic partnership with Afghanistan that will last long after Afghans take full security control of their nation by the end of 2014.

“The president has stated clearly that we have an enduring commitment to Afghanistan, and the strategic partnership will be a concrete instantiation of that,” he said. “There will be a lot of work to do after that, but it’s a critical milestone.”

Despite the past tumultuous months, Miller said, he is encouraged by progress made in negotiating the strategic partnership.

Senators also asked the men about corruption and Pakistan. A number of programs aimed at curbing government corruption appear to be making progress, Allen said. He praised Afghan President Hamid Karzai for his “good work” on the issue.

“He has appointed a presidential executive commission, headed by Minister of Finance [Omar] Zakhilwal, to partner with ISAF and with the international community on the issues of reclaiming borders, inland customs depots, and airports,” he said. “That’s an important move.”

The general told the senators he has not seen any change in the relationship between Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency and the Haqqani network, an issue that has contributed to strained relations between the United States and Pakistan.

Iran also is a neighbor of Afghanistan, and Iranian influence has to be taken into account as Afghan national security forces take control, the general said.

“Just as nature abhors a vacuum, so do geopolitics,” he said. “And should the United States leave Afghanistan -- should ISAF, should NATO leave Afghanistan -- that would create, in my mind, for all intents and purposes, a geopolitical vacuum, ahead, however, of the [Afghan forces] being ready to take full security.”

Miller stressed that a stable Afghanistan is in the interests of all nations in the region.

“While the Iranians may not be happy about an American presence there, … nonetheless, the Afghan people desire it,” he said. “And that presence ultimately works to Iran’s benefit as well, because it will affect the cross-border flow of narcotics, the cross-border flow of weapons and human trafficking.”

About 1.5 million Afghan refugees are in Iran, Miller noted. “They might be able to go home in a stable Afghanistan,” he said.

Miller reiterated the importance of the strategic partnership. It is essential for security and also affects perceptions of the Taliban and others, including Iran, he said.

Iranian leaders have played both sides of the fence in Afghanistan, Miller said.

“They have provided some support to the Afghan government and they've provided some support to the Taliban,” he told the panel. “If they see it in their interest to stir the pot and so forth, I think that … the strategic partnership, the advancement of the [Afghan forces] and the clear expression of commitment by the United States and the coalition is going to have to cause them to recalculate. And that’s essential.”

Iran Will Be Biggest Loser When Assad Falls, Panetta Says

By Jim Garamone
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, March 7, 2012 – Iran will be the biggest loser when Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime falls, Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta told the Senate Armed Services Committee today.

Panetta and Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, testified before the committee on the situation in Syria this morning.

The Syrian people want what the people of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya have – a chance at freedom and a democratic future, the secretary said. Assad and his people are indiscriminately killing those pushing for peaceful change in the nation. The fighting in the country is causing a humanitarian crisis of the first order, and thousands of Syrians are fleeing from the country to Jordan, Iraq and Turkey.

A stable Syria is vital to the Middle East and the world, Panetta said. “But perhaps most notably, Syria is a pivotal country for Iran,” the secretary said. “Syria is Iran’s only state ally in the region and is crucial to Iran’s efforts to support those militants throughout the region who threaten Israel and threaten regional stability.”

The unrest in Syria already has weakened Iran’s position in the Middle East, and it will be further weakened if the regime falls, the secretary said. “As groups such as Hamas distance themselves from the Assad regime, Iran is quickly becoming the Assad regime’s lone backer,” he added. “This shows the world the hypocrisy of Tehran.”

Panetta told the senators that the United States is on the side of the Syrian people. “They must know that the international community has not underestimated either their suffering or their impatience,” he said. “We all wish there was a clear and unambiguous way forward to directly influence the events in Syria. That, unfortunately, is not the case.”

The only clear path is for the international community to act as one against the regime, the secretary said.

Dempsey told the panel that Syria’s internal convulsions are having consequences. In addition to the refugee problem, the general said, “we also need to be alert to the movement of extremists and other hostile actors seeking to exploit the situation.”

“And we need to be especially alert to the fate of Syria’s chemical and biological weapons,” the chairman added. “They must stay exactly where they are.”

The U.S. military role to date has been limited to sharing information with regional partners, Dempsey said. “But, should we be called on to help secure U.S. interests in other ways, we will be ready,” he told the senators. “We maintain an agile regional and global posture. We have solid military relationships with every country on Syria’s borders.”

And the military is prepared to provide U.S. government leaders with options, Dempsey said. “All options will be judged in terms of their suitability, their feasibility and their acceptability,” he added. “We have a further responsibility to articulate risk and the potential implications for our other global commitments.”

Panetta told the senators that unilateral U.S. action in Syria does not make sense.

“As secretary of defense, before I recommend that we put our sons and daughters in uniform in harm’s way, I’ve got to make very sure that we know what the mission is,” he said. “I’ve got to make very sure that we know whether we can achieve that mission, at what price, and whether or not it’ll make matters better or worse. Those are the considerations that I have to engage in.”

The United States needs to build the same type of coalition that worked in Libya, Dempsey said.

The senators asked Dempsey specifically about an air campaign over Syria. “We’ve demonstrated the capability to penetrate air defense systems for a discrete purpose and a very limited amount of time,” he said. “We still have that capability.” To conduct a sustained campaign, the U.S. military would have to suppress Syria’s air defense.

“In closed session, we do have an estimate based on gaming and modeling of how long it would take to do that, given the density and the sophistication of their air defense system,” Dempsey said. “But it would be an extended period of time, and a great number of aircraft.”

Such an air campaign would be led by the United States, at least initially, Dempsey said, noting that only U.S. forces have the electronic warfare capabilities to take down those defenses.

Socom Commander Discusses Progress in Afghanistan

By Karen Parrish
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, March 6, 2012 – Afghan forces now are leading all of the night raids U.S. special operations forces conduct with them in Afghanistan, the commander of U.S. Special Operations Command told senators today.

Navy Adm. William McRaven said operations in Afghanistan remain his near-term focus and highest priority. McRaven testified alongside Marine Corps Gen. James N. Mattis, U.S. Central Command commander, before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

The special operations leader and Navy SEAL said his forces bring two key capabilities to the transition effort in Afghanistan: the lethal and precise direct approach epitomized in night raids, and the indirect effort to build Afghan security and governance through village stability operations with Afghan forces.

Night raids target high-value insurgents, often after coalition and Afghan troops have tracked them for days or weeks, McRaven said.

Those individuals “generally bed down” and are much more targetable at night, McRaven said, calling the night operations an essential tactic.

The admiral acknowledged the raids’ unpopularity among the Afghan people, but said ensuring Afghan troops are “the first forces through the door” as they lead the raids has helped allay people’s anxiety.

Such raids often are safer than daytime operations, he said, because fewer people are out in the villages.

Meanwhile, McRaven said, special operations forces also work to strengthen programs such as the Afghan local police, which includes about 11,000 Afghans and is set to grow to 30,000 over the next few years. The village-based forces are starting to link together in mutual defense for the first time, he said.

“One village is actually coming to the aid of another village when they're being attacked or harassed,” he said.

A single road connecting villages makes that cooperation possible, the admiral noted.

“That's why it's very important to continue with [infrastructure projects] so they can get from Point A to Point B, see what the other village is doing, create trade with that village … [and] be the safety and security for that village, and vice versa,” McRaven added.

The admiral noted that no International Security Assistance Force special operations troops have been targeted in any of the “green-on-blue” incidents involving Afghan army and police members killing coalition troops.

“We have built these partnerships over many years,” McRaven said. “They're very strong partnerships. We have great respect for our Afghan partners, and we think this strategy of partnering with the Afghans is absolutely essential to victory in Afghanistan.”

Mattis Defends Afghan Strategy, Warns of Iran, Al-Qaida Threats

By Donna Miles
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, March 6, 2012 – The commander of U.S. Central Command staunchly defended the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan before Congress today, saying that, despite recent violence over the Quran-burning incident, he believes it is bearing fruit.

“I’m delighted to defend our strategy. I believe it is working,” Marine Corps Gen. James N. Mattis told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

“We should not allow a few criminals, malcontents, to define the Afghan security forces,” he said. “Even their performance during these last two weeks -- disciplined, restrained, standing by us -- is an indication that this is a force that’s come a long ways.”

He noted that no vetting process can totally eliminate insider threats. “No force is perfect,” he said. “I would just remind everyone that even Jesus of Nazareth had one out of 12 go to mud on him.”

What particularly stands out following “a very disappointing and unintentional mistake by U.S. forces” was that it didn’t shake the Afghan security force’s confidence in them.

“It did not shake the teamwork,” Mattis said.

The general noted that Afghan security forces are within 60 days of reaching the 352,000-man goal that had been set for October 2012.

In his opening statement to the panel, Mattis said Iran and al-Qaida remain the two biggest threats in the Centcom area of responsibility.

He told the panel he’s never seen the region so tumultuous in the 30 years he has supported U.S. efforts there.

He noted challenges posed by radicals, violent extremists, malignant networks and state-sponsored agents and unconventional proxies who seek to violently exploit differences there.

But the general singled out Iran as the No. 1 threat to regional stability and security. “They're fighting basically a shadow war every day,” he told the panel, asserting themselves in destabilizing ways throughout the region, and beyond.

He noted that although Iran has never gotten along particularly well with the Taliban, “they’re willing to help the Taliban to some degree to fight us in Afghanistan,” he said.

Mattis also pointed to Iran’s efforts to take advantage of turmoil associated with the Arab Awakening movement. “It’s highly concerning,” he said.

Meanwhile, despite security gains in the fight against terrorists, “the threat remains,” he said.

“Al-Qaida and associated groups continue to kill innocents from the Levant to Yemen and are adapting in the face of U.S. pressure,” Mattis said. He noted a troubling development as al-Qaida begins to make a comeback in Iraq. It’s evident “notably in the western Iraq area,” he said. “But the threat is extending into Baghdad.”

Mattis emphasized during his testimony that his overarching goal is to prevent further conflict, and he reaffirmed that the U.S. won’t waiver in defense of its allies, partners and national interests.

The region “remains of great strategic importance to other world powers and is vital to many of America’s most enduring national interests,” he told the panel.

Centom is postured to address the challenges, Mattis said, as it works closely with the State Department and other agencies to promote peace and stability. “The military challenge will be determining how we retain a sustainable presence and operational flexibility in a fiscally constrained environment,” he said.

“Although we are withdrawing some ground forces from the region, we are not withdrawing our support for long-time allies and partners,” he said. “Nor are we pulling back our commitment from a region that too many times has taken a commitment of American blood and treasure to restore stability.”

Mattis recognized the “grim cost” the defense of U.S. interests in the region has taken during more than 10 years of war. He noted that 612 Americans have died and 8,251 have been wounded since he took command in August 2010.

“Through persistent military-to-military engagement, our troops reassure our friends and temper adversary intentions,” he said.

Mattis called other security cooperation activities “cost-effective means for building our friends’ defensive capabilities, allowing us to operate in concert with our allies and friends and to rapidly respond in times of need.”

Looking to the future, Mattis said Centcom is appropriately funded to carry out its mission. He did, however, identify some needed capabilities: improved counter-improvised explosive device protection; information operations and voice programs to counter adversary propaganda on the Internet; and improved intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets, among them.

Mattis also noted the need for specific resources vital to the Afghanistan campaign. He cited coalition support funds, the command’s emergency response program, Afghan infrastructure fund and reintegration authority.

These funds “enable us to meet urgent humanitarian and infrastructure needs of a population that is increasingly secured by its own forces -- forces we have been building and training through the Afghan security forces fund,” he said.

Europe Remains Committed to Afghan Mission, Commander Says

By Lisa Daniel
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON – European countries strongly support continuing with the mission in Afghanistan despite violent uprisings there, and NATO is likely to continue its partnership with Afghanistan well past the end of combat operations, the alliance’s supreme allied commander for Europe said here.

Navy Adm. James G. Stavridis, who also is commander of U.S. European Command, addressed Afghanistan and NATO and U.S.-European partnerships during testimony today before the Senate Armed Services Committee and yesterday before the House Armed Services Committee.

The admiral said he sees no reason to change the strategy in Afghanistan of transitioning security responsibility to Afghan forces in response to violent uprisings that began there last week after it was learned that some U.S. forces had inadvertently burned copies of the Quran.

“As I look at the broad sweep of our strategy there, I am convinced that we should continue with transitioning Afghanistan’s security to the Afghans,” Stavridis said. “In my conversations – I’ve had many over last week or so with senior leaders in the alliance – there’s solid support on the European side to continue with current strategy.”

Stavridis noted that about 150 demonstrations had left 30 people killed and 150 wounded. “That’s significant activity, but it’s been very much diffused around the country,” he said, adding that Marine Corps Gen. John R. Allen, commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, has said he is pleased with Afghan security forces’ ability to contain the violence.

“If you step back and look at the larger progression in Afghanistan, I remain cautiously optimistic that we can succeed there,” the admiral said. Two years ago, when U.S. and British Marines moved into Marjah, there were 10 coalition troops to every Afghan soldier. Today, there are two Afghan soldiers for every coalition member, he said.

Stavridis said he expects Allen will lay out a “definitive track” in mid-summer for the drawdown of coalition forces. “It has to be conditions-based as we go forward,” he said.

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has a “high-level goal” of signing a long-term strategic partnership agreement with Afghanistan, showing NATO’s “strong willingness to go forward,” Stavridis said. “I think we will see an enduring relationship between NATO and the Republic of Afghanistan,” he added.

Stavridis told the Senators he will provide them with a classified report on the recent violence in Afghanistan, and in response to a question, said the uprisings appear to be a combination of spontaneous demonstrations and Taliban-driven activity.

The admiral also spoke about the importance of U.S.-European partnerships, noting that European countries have 40,000 troops in Afghanistan and lead operations in the Balkans. Speaking to the need for a continued U.S. presence in Europe, he said, “It does matter that we continue to have Europe as our partner of first resort.”

However, he said, he repeatedly has urged European nations to spend more on defense capabilities. The United States spends about 4.5 percent of its gross domestic product on defense, he said, and members of the European Union have pledged to spend 2 percent of each of theirs, but only some are meeting that goal, with most spending only about 1.5 percent of GDP on defense, he said.

“They should spend more, and if they would spend more, it would permit the United States to spend less,” Stavridis said. “I think the United States should press this very hard.”

Also at the hearings, the general gave his assessment of NATO’s capabilities in cyber defense. “We are in the process of catching up,” he said. “We have hard work to do in cyber.”

NATO’s progress on cyber is evident at the recently created Cyber Center of Excellence in Estonia, and in a computer response center being added in the NATO headquarters building in Brussels, the admiral said. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Georgia have had “fairly severe” cyber attacks in recent years, he noted.

Cyber defense was included in the 2010 NATO Strategic Concept, and Stavridis said he expects it to be discussed at the upcoming summit.

European governments struggle with public-private cooperation on cyber defense just as Americans do, he said. “We have more thinking and talking to do within the U.S. military structure as to the precise authorities and structures” in U.S. Cyber Command.

Commander: Countering Extremists Tops Africom’s Priorities

By Cheryl Pellerin
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, Feb. 29, 2012 – In its mission to strengthen the defense capabilities of African states, the U.S. Africa Command considers countering extremist organizations its top job, Army Gen. Carter F. Ham, Africom commander, said today.

“In line with the new defense strategic guidance, we’ve prioritized our efforts, focusing on the greatest threats to America, Americans and American interests,” Ham told the House Armed Services Committee. “Countering threats posed by al-Qaida affiliates in east and northwest Africa remains my No. 1 priority.”

Helping Africom partners responsibly address their own security challenges is an integral part of the command’s activities, as are strengthening regional and peacekeeping capabilities and maritime security, the general said.

“Our engagements are designed to be innovative, low-cost and have a small footprint,” Ham told the panel. “In Africa, a small investment truly can go a long way.”

Over the past year, significant changes have swept the African continent, he said.

“The broad wave of democratic movements that began in Tunisia has spread faster and more broadly than many forecasted,” Ham said. “And the Republic of South Sudan is the world’s newest nation,” gaining its independence last July.

In Nigeria, an Islamist extremist organization called Boko Haram conducts violent attacks and demonstrates a growing threat to western interests, the general said. And in the Horn of Africa on Feb. 9, he noted, al-Qaida and its Somalia-based terrorist cell al-Shabaab publicly formalized their long-standing merger.

Strong relationships have long been suspected among al-Qaida, al-Shebab and al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula across the Gulf of Aden, operating in the country of Yemen, Ham said.

“Some have postulated that the timing of the public announcement may [indicate] that al-Shebab is under duress,” Ham said. “I believe they are very much under duress by the African Union mission in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, which have joined in the effort to defeat al-Shebab and clear areas of Somalia from al-Shebab control.”

The announcement is not quite a last gasp, the general added, “but I would say [it is] an effort by al-Shebab to gain some international support.”

While each group by itself is certainly dangerous, he added, “what concerns me more is at least the … intent expressed by the leaders of those organizations to more closely collaborate and synchronize their efforts.” If they are able to coordinate efforts, share funding and training and exchange weapons, the Africom commander said, “I think that presents a real challenge for us.”

In October, President Barack Obama authorized the deployment to central Africa of 100 combat-equipped U.S. forces whose mission was to help regional forces fight the notorious Lord's Resistance Army and its leader, Joseph Kony.

Today, with the approval of the Ugandan government, about 100 service members and civilians that include two combat-equipped teams and headquarters, communications and logistics personnel, provide information, advice and assistance to select partner nation forces and act as advisers to partner forces that seek to remove Kony and other senior LRA leadership from the battlefield.

“The Lord’s Resistance Army is an organization that creates through violence a tremendous amount of instability in a four-country region of east and central Africa,” Ham told the House members. “Initially beginning in Uganda but now extending their efforts into South Sudan, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo, they’ve displaced many thousands of African citizens and brought terror and fear to families across the region.”

Ham said the four African nations, with U.S. forces in a facilitating role, are coming together in an increasingly collaborative approach to counter the LRA.

“To date, what we have found is that presence of the U.S. mostly special forces advisors that are working with the armed forces of those four nations are having a very positive effect,” the general said.

Though he is optimistic, he added, the effort is “not yet to the point where we see the end in sight.”

Security in Africa, he said, continues to be influenced by external actors, by rapid economic developments, population growth and the overall size and diversity of the continent itself.

Ham said that as he travels across Africa, he’s been encouraged by the optimism of African leaders in confronting the challenges and embracing the opportunities ahead.

Because he believes Africans are best able to address African security challenges, and because a safe, secure and stable Africa is in the U.S. national interest, the general added, “we at U.S. Africa Command will continue to strive to be the security partner of choice in Africa.”

Defeating al-Qaida Requires Continued Pressure, Panetta Says

By Donna Miles

American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, June 9, 2011 – The operation that killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden “has not only made clear to the world that we will do what we have to do, but it has also given us the greatest chance since 9/11 to disrupt, dismantle and to defeat al-Qaida,” Leon E. Panetta said today during his confirmation hearing to become the next defense secretary.

“But to do that, to be able to finish the job, we have got to keep our pressure up,” Panetta, the current CIA director, told the Senate Armed Services Committee. “If confirmed, my first tasks at DOD will be to ensure that we prevail in conflicts that we are engaged in.”

Al-Qaida has been weakened through the loss of its spiritual leader, but still remains dangerous, Panetta told the Senate panel. In addition to its activities in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq, he said, it is establishing nodes in other parts of the world, including Yemen and Somalia.

Panetta emphasized that success is the only option in Afghanistan.

“If we lose in Afghanistan, we not only create another safe haven for al-Qaida and for their militant allies,” he said, “but I think the world becomes a much more threatened place because of that loss, particularly in that region.”

The goal, he said, is to “try to develop a stable enough Afghanistan that it will never again become a safe haven for al-Qaida or for other terrorist groups.” It’s a multi-pronged effort he said, and requires not only degrading the Taliban and training Afghan security forces, but also strengthening Afghan governmental institutions.

The coalition has made security progress there, “albeit fragile and reversible,” Panetta told the committee. He reported “good progress” in training Afghan national security forces, with 100,000 more Afghan soldiers and police in place today than in December 2009. In addition, the International Security Assistance Force training mission is ahead of schedule to meet its goal of 305,000 by this fall.

More progress is needed in the governance area, Panetta acknowledged, so Afghan leaders can “take ownership of their country … [and] govern and protect their country.”

Panetta said he supports President Barack Obama’s target to begin transferring increasing security responsibility to Afghan security forces next month and to begin a drawdown of U.S. forces there. “I very much support that decision,” he said.

But when pressed, he declined to specify exactly what he would recommend regarding troop numbers and timelines. Those decisions are best left at this point to Obama, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, commander of ISAF and U.S. Forces Afghanistan, he said.

“If I'm confirmed, I'll have to, obviously, arrive at a decision myself that I’ll have to ultimately present to the president," Panetta said. “I'm not in that position now.”

As drawdown plans are made, Panetta said, he recognizes that that they potentially could have to be adjusted. “This has to be a conditions-based withdrawal," he said. “That means you look at the conditions on the ground as it proceeds.”

Success in Afghanistan, he acknowledged, hinges closely with events in Pakistan. Panetta also emphasized the importance of the U.S. relationship with Pakistan, and their common interest in confronting a common enemy that threatens them both.

“We can't succeed in Afghanistan if we're not succeeding in Pakistan in terms of controlling the safe havens and the cross-border operations,” he said. “And so we've got to work at both in order to ensure that we're able to stay on path with what we would like to achieve in Afghanistan.”

Panetta conceded that the U.S.-Pakistani relationship has undergone some strain. Complicating it, he said, is the fact that the Pakistanis maintain relationships with certain terrorist groups, that they continue to not take aggressive action with regard to these safe havens, and that their concern about the sovereignty results in criticisms of the United States.

In fact, Panetta said, he believes that “the terrorists in their country are probably the greatest threat to their sovereignty.”

“The relationship with Pakistan is at the same time one of the most critical and yet one of the most complicated and frustrating relationships that we have,” he said. But he emphasized the need to work at it and approach it as a two-way street.

“We have to maintain the relationship,” he said. “We've got to do everything we can to try to strengthen that relationship, so that both of us can work to defend both of our countries.”

Turning his attention to Iraq, Panetta said the United States must ensure that Iraqi military and security forces are prepared to safeguard their nation so it can become a stable democracy in the region. He declined to rule out the idea of extending the U.S. military presence there beyond Dec. 31, if asked by the Iraqis. Pointing to the recent spate of violent attacks there, he said a thousand al-Qaida members still operate there.

“It, too, continues to be a fragile situation,” he said of Iraq. “And I believe that we should take whatever steps are necessary to make sure that we protect whatever progress we've made there.”