War on Terrorism

Sunday, December 02, 2007

Weapons of Mass Destruction and Alternative Futures

Key findings of the report:
Among driving forces in the international security environment affecting the potential future use of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) against the Unites States, those judged to be the most significant are the spread of radical Islam and the increase of globalization.

Plausible events could lead to alternative futures in which radical Islam and globalization could be either high or low.

The likelihood of the use of WMD would be highest in the Hidden Islam scenario and lowest in the Open Borders scenario.

Each scenario has different opportunities, allies, threats and competitors.

In all scenarios, there are indicators and signposts that occur in the years prior to their full development that the intelligence community will be tasked to monitor and identify.


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